5月11日上午，由中国人民争取和平与裁军协会和美国丹佛大学约瑟夫·科贝尔国际关系学院中美合作中心联合举办的“乌克兰危机与全球秩序的演进”（The Ukraine Crisis and the Evolution of International Landscape）网络研讨会顺利举行。来自中美双方的十余位专家学者围绕俄乌冲突对国际秩序的影响进行了深入研讨。全国政协常委，北京大学国际关系学院教授、中外人文交流研究基地主任贾庆国受邀出席会议并发表主旨演讲。他指出，中美在乌克兰危机上分歧多于共识，合作的空间依然存在。
以下为贾庆国教授讲话实录，与读者分享。
全国政协常委，北京大学国际关系学院教授、中外人文交流研究基地主任贾庆国发表主旨演讲
关于中美两国在乌克兰危机问题上的立场共识与分歧，几位专家已经进行了充分的讨论，我将非常简短地分享我的一些思考。
About the differences and consensus between the position of China and the U.S. on the Ukraine crisis, I think some of the things I'm going to say have already been said, so I’ll be very brief.
在中美共识方面：首先，中美双方都同意俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事行动违反了《联合国宪章》和不使用武力解决国际争端的原则，我认为双方在这一点上是一致的。当然，中国更倾向于用外交的方式表达自己的看法。
First of all, in terms of consensus or agreement, I think both China and the U.S. agree that Russia's military operation against Ukraine violates the UN Charter and the principle of no-use of force to resolve international disputes. I think we agree on that, but China has been more diplomatic in expressing this position.
第二个共识是，俄乌战争不符合任何一方的利益，应该尽快结束。当然，双方的出发点不尽相同。中国有自己的理由希望冲突尽快结束，美国也有自己的理由。在中国，有观点认为，美国希望结束冲突的原因之一是为了集中精力应对中国。
The second agreement is that the war is not in the interest of anybody and should be ended as soon as possible. So that's probably an area of agreement for different reasons. I think China has its own reason for ending the war and the U.S. has its own reasons to end the war. Some Chinese suspect that one of the reasons for the U.S. to favor an early end to the war is to facilitate its focus on China.
第三个共识是，应尽一切努力防止俄乌冲突升级为核灾难。这一点刚刚已经讨论过了。
The third area of agreement is that every effort should be made to prevent the escalation of the war into a nuclear disaster. That has been discussed.
最后，双方都认为应当欢迎任何促成和平的努力。不过，在我看来，中美之间在如何推动和平问题上的分歧多于共识。
And finally, I think we agree that we need to welcome any effort to broker peace, but it seems to me that we have more differences than agreements.
在中美在俄乌战争的分歧方面，首先，双方对于冲突的起因有不同看法。中国更强调北约东扩张。当然，中国承认还有其他原因，但在我看来，中国认为北约的扩张才是导致冲突的主要原因。而美国则认为俄罗斯重建帝国的野心导致了冲突的爆发。
First of all, we disagree as to the cause of the conflict. China has attached more importance to NATO expansion as a course. Of course, there are other reasons that the Chinese acknowledge, but it seems to me (that) China highlights the NATO expansion. The U.S. tends to highlight the Russia’s ambition to rebuild its empire. So we seem to highlight different things when we talk about the cause of the conflict.
其次，关于结束冲突的理由。中国认为俄乌冲突给两国和世界都带来了伤害。当然，就中国而言，中国不希望面对俄罗斯崩溃的负面后果。鉴于中美关系紧张，中国需要俄罗斯作为朋友和伙伴。此外，战争的持续可能使西方国家的反华势力有机会推动加大对华制裁，这也是中国不愿意看到的。俄罗斯的崩溃和加大对中国的制裁都是中国不能接受的。因此，中国希望尽可能早地结束冲突。
In terms of the reason for ending the war, China believes that the war has brought harm to both countries and the world. And, of course, as far as China is concerned, China does not want to face the negative consequence of the collapse of Russia. Given the tension between China and the U.S., China needs Russia as a friend and partner. And also, China does not want to face the possibility of more sanctions on the part of the West against China if the war prolongs to the extent that the anti-China forces would prevail in bringing such kind of sanctions against China in those countries. Both the collapse of Russia and additional sanctions against China are unacceptable to China. So the earlier we have an end to the conflict the better.
对美国来说，希望冲突结束的理由主要有二：其一，持续冲突可能会升级为核战争；其二，美国可能因俄乌冲突的持续而陷入与俄罗斯旷日持久、代价高昂的战争。对不少美国人来说，陷入与俄罗斯的长期战争对美国来说是不利的，因为美国需要利用各种资源来遏制中国。
For the U.S., there is the threat of escalation of the war into a nuclear exchange, and also the likelihood of being trapped into a prolonged and costly conflict with Russia. That's the reason for ending the war or at least the primary reason. And for some people in the U.S., to be trapped in a prolonged war with Russia is not good for the U.S. also because it diverts its resources to contain China.
第三个分歧在于中国的中立态度。中国认为自己有权保持中立。而且，历史上，美国也经常这样做，在第一次世界大战与第二次世界大战前期，美国都实行过中立的政策。但是，对美国来说，至少对一部分美国人来说，中国的中立意味着中国与俄罗斯站在一起或支持俄罗斯。虽然这不是真的，但它被很多美国人所接受。
The third area of difference is China's neutrality. China believes that China has the right (to stay neutral).In history, the U.S. practised this a lot, the first World War, and the Second World War, the U.S. played a neutral role. But, for the U.S., for some Americans at least, China's neutrality means China's siding with Russia or endorsement of Russia’s activities. Even though that's not true, but it has a lot of acceptance.
分歧的第四个方面则是对战争结果的期望。中国希望俄罗斯和乌克兰之间达成妥协，在协调双方利益的基础上达成某种解决方案，双方能够达成的任何协议对中国而言都是很可能接受的。美国还没有下定决心，但在我看来，至少有很多美国人希望同时取得意识形态上和军事上的胜利，尤其是意识形态的胜利。在美国关于俄乌冲突的话语中，意识形态的调子是很高的。
The fourth area of difference is the preferred end of the war. China wants a compromise between Russia and Ukraine, some kind of a settlement on the basis of interests, probably whatever kind of agreement that they can reach, China probably would accept. But the U.S. has not made up its mind, but it seems to me that at least a lot of people want an ideological as well as a military victory, especially an ideological one. There is a very high ideological tone in U.S. rhetoric.
那么，中美之间在俄乌问题上的分歧是否会导致中美关系更加紧张？很有可能。美国怀疑中国会帮助俄罗斯。考虑到两国之间的紧张局势，美国持有这样的观点并不奇怪。中国没有公开谴责俄罗斯。相反，它公开将冲突的原因归咎于北约的扩张，这是许多美国人无法接受的。此外，不少美国政客敦促拜登政府对中国与俄罗斯站在一边的行为实施制裁，还有一些人正试图制造中国将利用俄乌冲突武力解决台湾问题的假象。
So are the differences between China and the U.S. leading to more tension in China-U.S. relations? Of course, more likely than not. The U.S. is suspicious that China is going to help Russia. There're good reasons to do so, given the tension between the two countries. China has refrained from publicly condemning Russia. Instead, it has publicly attributed the cause of the conflict to NATO expansion. That is unacceptable to a lot of Americans. The U.S. is not going to like it, and there are people in the U.S. urging the Biden administration to impose sanctions on China for taking side with Russia. And there are people who are making up or catering for the possibility of China's taking advantage of Russia's invasion to take over Taiwan by force.
中美在解决乌克兰危机方面是否有合作的空间？当然有，但实现合作可能非常困难。首先，双方可以敦促俄罗斯和乌克兰尽快停火并进行谈判。其次，美国可以鼓励中国在调解和平方面发挥更大作用，而不是将中国在这方面的行动政治化。事实上，中国因同时与俄乌双方友好在协调双方关系时可以发挥独特的作用。第三，一旦冲突得以和平解决，双方都可以扮演担保人的角色，双方都有这样做的能力。最后，两国可以在乌克兰战后重建中较大的作用。如果中国和美国能够在乌克兰危机的解决上达成合作，对缓和中美两国之间的紧张关系也将是有益的。然而，正如我刚刚所说，在当前中美关系紧张的情况下，想要实现上述合作非常困难。以上是我的看法，谢谢！
Is there some room for cooperation between China and the U.S. in resolving the Ukraine crisis? Of course, there is room, but the probability for that to happen is very small. First, the two sides can urge Russia and Ukraine to have a ceasefire and engage in negotiation. Second, the U.S. can encourage China to play a larger role in brokering peace instead of politicizing China's actions in this regard. Actually, China enjoys a unique position of being friendly to both sides. Thirdly, both sides can play a role of guarantors once a peaceful settlement is obtained, and both have the credibility of doing it. And finally, both countries can play a large role in Ukraine's postwar reconstruction. If China and the U.S. can do this, it should also help moderate the tension between them. However, as I said earlier, the chance for that to happen is small. Thank you.
本文为iGCU原创，欢迎转载，转载时请标明文章来源：北京大学中外人文交流研究基地
订阅