小 i 导 读
6月20日，北京大学国际关系学院教授、北京大学中外人文交流研究基地执行主任王栋接受知名国际事务分析平台GeoTrends独家专访，就不断演变的中美关系以及中国正在形成的国际秩序愿景发表看法。
王栋在采访中表示，构建“中美建设性战略稳定关系”这一共识，标志着双边关系发生重要转变。该框架旨在推动主动管控风险、开展平衡互利的互动、保持常态化机制沟通，并实现长期稳定。如果这一共识能够转化为持续的政策实践，将有助于两国管控竞争、扩大合作、稳定经贸关系，为全球经济增添确定性。
王栋还谈到中国在“再全球化”进程中的作用。他认为，这一进程正日益受到新兴经济体的塑造。中国通过共建“一带一路”和《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》等倡议与机制，在提供全球公共产品、推动数字发展、促进区域经济一体化和加强多边合作方面作出贡献。王栋以比雷埃夫斯港为例提出，具备商业可行性并与当地深度融合的项目，体现了中欧合作的韧性。
展望未来，王栋表示，中美关系的走向取决于双方能否将政治共识转化为持久实践。稳定的经贸联系、有序的竞争、人工智能等前沿领域务实的合作以及更深入的人文交流，是构建更具可预期性的双边关系和合作型国际秩序的重要基础。
本文约8500字，读完约30分钟
专访英文全文及中文翻译如下：
图源GeoTrends
As U.S.–China relations enter a new and consequential phase, Wang Dong is among the most prominent voices articulating Beijing’s strategic thinking. Professor of International Relations at Peking University and a leading scholar of China–U.S. relations, Wang argues that the world is moving toward a new era of “reglobalization,” with China playing a central role in shaping global governance, economic integration, and digital development.
In his interview with GeoTrends, Wang outlines Beijing’s vision of a more stable and cooperative framework for managing competition with Washington, discusses the risks surrounding Taiwan and the Pacific, and explains why China sees initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) while highlighting the Port of Piraeus as an example that addresses the EU’s criticism of “market distortion.”
随着中美关系进入一个具有重要影响的新阶段，王栋成为阐释中国战略思考的最主要的学者之一。作为北京大学国际关系学教授和知名中美关系研究学者，王栋认为，世界正在迈入“再全球化”新时代，中国将在塑造全球治理、经济一体化和数字发展方面发挥核心作用。
在接受GeoTrends采访时，王栋阐述了中国关于构建更加稳定、更具合作性的中美竞争管控框架的构想。他还分析了台湾问题和太平洋地区面临的风险，并通过比雷埃夫斯港这一案例说明中国对共建“一带一路”等倡议的看法，以及这一案例如何回应欧盟关于“市场扭曲”的批评。
Interview edited for clarity：
以下采访内容经过编辑整理：
Q: President Trump’s recent visit to China appeared to mark a new phase in U.S.–China relations. What, in your view, has changed most significantly in the relationship between the two countries over the past decade?
问：特朗普总统最近访华似乎标志着中美关系进入新阶段。您认为，过去十年间两国关系最显著的变化是什么？
A: In the nine years leading up to President Trump’s visit to China, the global order underwent profound adjustments and restructuring, which laid a new foundation for the meeting between the two leaders. China’s economic and political influence on the global stage has been continuously growing, and the power dynamics and interaction environment between the two countries are no longer one-sided; instead, they present a more complex landscape of interdependence and competition.
The implications of China–U.S. relations have far exceeded bilateral considerations, becoming an important factor affecting global stability and development. This means that any significant interactions between the two countries will trigger chain reactions worldwide, particularly in geopolitical terms.
答：在特朗普总统此次访华前的九年里，全球秩序经历了深刻调整与重构，为两国领导人此次会晤奠定了新的基础。中国在全球经济和政治领域的影响力持续上升，两国之间的力量格局和互动环境已经发生变化，呈现出相互依存与竞争并存的复杂局面。
中美关系的意义早已超出双边范畴，成为影响全球稳定与发展的重要因素。这意味着，两国之间的任何重大互动都可能在世界范围内产生连锁反应，尤其会带来地缘政治影响。
Q: During the summit, both sides referred to a “constructive China–U.S. relationship of strategic stability.” What does this concept mean?
问：峰会期间，双方提到构建“中美建设性战略稳定关系”。这一概念具体意味着什么？
A: The paramount political consensus achieved during the summit between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump is the establishment of a “constructive China–U.S. relationship of strategic stability.”
This constitutes an innovative enhancement of the conventional strategic stability framework, a conceptual construct originating from Cold War-era nuclear arms control centred on mutually assured destruction and bilateral nuclear restraint between Washington and Moscow, underpinned by four key pillars: proactive stability, healthy stability, routine stability and lasting stability.
In short, these four terms constitute China’s conceptual framework: proactive means pre-emptive risk management; healthy denotes balanced, mutually beneficial interactions; routine refers to regular institutional communication mechanisms; lasting stands for long-term sustainable bilateral stability.
答：习近平主席与唐纳德·特朗普总统会晤期间达成的最重要政治共识，是构建“中美建设性战略稳定关系”。
这一概念是对传统战略稳定框架的创新性发展。传统战略稳定源于冷战时期的核军控，其核心是华盛顿与莫斯科之间以相互确保摧毁和双边核克制为基础的安排。新的框架包含四个关键支柱，即积极稳定、良性稳定、常态稳定和持久稳定。
简言之，这四个概念构成了中国提出的框架。积极稳定强调提前管控风险；良性稳定指向平衡互利的互动；常态稳定要求建立制度化、常态化的沟通机制；持久稳定则意味着实现长期、可持续的双边稳定。
Q: If this framework succeeds, what impact could it have on bilateral relations and the wider global economy?
问：如果这一框架取得成功，将对双边关系和全球经济产生什么影响？
A: Going forward, guided by the constructive China–U.S. relationship of strategic stability, bilateral economic and trade ties stand a fairly good chance of stabilising, with selective qualitative improvement limited to specific sectors such as agriculture and energy.
The two countries will shift from the previous pattern of pervasive competition and frequent frictions towards a new era of managed competition, expanded cooperation and mutually beneficial, win-win development. This transformation will introduce greater certainty into the global economy, a development of paramount importance amid prevailing global economic disarray, disrupted trade and investment flows, fractured supply and industrial chains, and muted growth worldwide.
答：展望未来，在中美建设性战略稳定关系框架引领下，双边经贸关系有望趋于稳定，农业、能源等特定领域的合作质量也可能得到有选择的提升。
两国将逐步摆脱全面竞争和摩擦频发的旧有模式，转向管控竞争、扩大合作和互利共赢发展的新阶段。这一转变将为全球经济增添确定性。在当前全球经济秩序紊乱、贸易与投资流动受阻、产业链供应链断裂、全球增长乏力的背景下，这一点尤为重要。
Q: In what ways does Beijing seek to position itself at the centre of this new global framework?
问：中国希望通过哪些方式在这一新的全球框架中发挥核心作用？
A: In the context of unprecedented global change, the traditional model of globalization is facing significant challenges, while emerging economies such as China are reshaping the globalization process in new ways. “Reglobalization” refers to reforms of the globalization process led by emerging countries, represented by China, together with the resulting effects of model upgrading and expansion. China is playing a central role in the global “reglobalization” process, particularly in providing global public goods, promoting digital globalization, and fostering the coordinated development of regional integration and multilateralism.
Firstly, guided by the concept of a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind, China actively participates in global governance by providing global public goods in areas such as climate change and infrastructure development, offering Chinese solutions and wisdom to address global challenges.
Secondly, China’s strong competitive position in the global digital sphere, particularly in terms of digital technology, digital industries, and digital capabilities, provides a key driving force behind China’s leadership in “reglobalization”.
Lastly, within the framework of “reglobalization” China actively promotes regional economic integration through initiatives such as the BRI and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), building a closer network of regional cooperation to create new drivers of growth for global trade and investment.
答：面对百年未有之大变局，传统全球化模式正面临重大挑战，中国等新兴经济体则以新的方式重塑全球化进程。“再全球化”是指以中国为代表的新兴国家主导全球化进程改革，并由此推动全球化模式升级和拓展。中国正在全球“再全球化”进程中发挥核心作用，主要体现在提供全球公共产品、推动数字全球化，以及促进区域一体化与多边主义协调发展等方面。
第一，在人类命运共同体理念引领下，中国积极参与全球治理，在气候变化、基础设施建设等领域提供全球公共产品，为应对全球性挑战贡献中国方案和中国智慧。
第二，中国在全球数字领域具有较强竞争力，尤其在数字技术、数字产业和数字能力方面具备优势，这是中国引领“再全球化”的重要动力。
第三，在“再全球化”框架下，中国通过共建“一带一路”和《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》等倡议与机制积极推动区域经济一体化，构建更加紧密的区域合作网络，为全球贸易和投资创造新的增长动力。
Q: During his meeting with Trump, President Xi reportedly invoked the theory of the “Thucydides Trap” — the idea that conflict can emerge when a rising power challenges an established one. Despite deep economic interdependence, what factors could still drive tensions between China and the United States in the Pacific, and how can escalation be avoided?
问：据报道，习近平主席在与特朗普会晤时提到了“修昔底德陷阱”理论，即崛起大国挑战守成大国时可能引发冲突。尽管中美经济高度相互依存，哪些因素仍可能加剧两国在太平洋地区的紧张关系？双方应如何避免局势升级？
A: The core of the “Thucydides Trap” theory is that a rising power will inevitably challenge the existing hegemon, which, in turn, will respond to this perceived threat, making war unavoidable. To prevent China–U.S. relations from falling into this trap, the United States needs to correct the epistemological errors in its China policy and avoid perceiving China as an inevitable threat or competitor. Instead, it should adopt a more objective and rational perspective on China’s development and establish what I call a “new engagement consensus” based on mutual respect and equality.
Although the two countries’ economies are interdependent, a lack of such a consensus, coupled with insufficient respect for each other’s core interests, could still escalate tensions in the Pacific region.
The key mechanism for preventing escalation in China–U.S. relations and escaping the “Thucydides Trap” lies not in traditional military deterrence but in building trust and reducing the risk of miscalculation through diplomatic engagement and policy recalibration. The consensus on a constructive China–U.S. relationship of strategic stability reached during President Trump’s state visit to China represents an important evolution of the traditional strategic stability framework.
Moving beyond the minimalist objective of merely averting armed conflict, this new framework seeks to proactively manage bilateral dynamics, defuse confrontation through cooperative approaches, manage orderly competition, and accommodate legitimate differences between the two sides. It shifts China–U.S. relations from “risk-averse stability” towards “developmental stability”, laying out China’s proposed model for great-power relations.
答：“修昔底德陷阱”理论的核心观点是，崛起大国必然会挑战现有霸权国家，后者则会对其感知到的威胁作出回应，最终使战争难以避免。为了防止中美关系落入这一陷阱，美国需要纠正其对华政策中的认知错误，避免将中国视为必然的威胁或竞争对手。美国应当以更加客观、理性的态度看待中国发展，并在相互尊重和平等基础上建立我所说的“新接触共识”。
尽管两国经济相互依存，如果缺乏上述共识，同时又无法充分尊重彼此的核心利益，太平洋地区的紧张局势仍可能升级。
防止中美关系升级并摆脱“修昔底德陷阱”的关键，在于通过外交接触和政策调整增进信任、降低误判风险。传统军事威慑难以发挥同样作用。特朗普总统对中国进行国事访问期间，中美双方就构建中美建设性战略稳定关系达成共识，这代表着传统战略稳定框架的重要演进。
这一新框架超越了单纯避免武装冲突的最低目标，旨在主动管控双边关系，通过合作方式缓和对抗，有序管理竞争，并容纳双方之间的合理分歧。它推动中美关系从“避险型稳定”转向“发展型稳定”，提出了中国关于大国关系模式的主张。
Q: Could the Taiwan question ultimately become the defining point of friction between Washington and Beijing?
问：台湾问题最终会成为中美之间最主要的摩擦点吗？
A: The Chinese leadership’s firm position on the Taiwan question stands as an unambiguous testament to China’s unwavering resolve to safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Indeed, the Taiwan question emerged as the single most consequential issue on the agenda during President Trump’s visit to China.
China has been consistent and unequivocal on this point: the Taiwan question constitutes the foremost priority and the very core of China–U.S. relations — the absolute red line and the political bedrock upon which the entire bilateral relationship rests. It is, in the most direct sense, the defining variable in determining whether China–U.S. relations can attain what we have previously described as “constructive strategic stability.” Should the Taiwan question be managed with prudence and good faith, the broader bilateral relationship can be placed on a stable and predictable footing; should it be mishandled, the two countries risk sliding towards a confrontation neither side can afford.
On his flight back, and in an interview with Fox News, President Trump stated plainly that he had no desire to see Taiwan move towards independence. As he put it:
“I will say this: I’m not looking to have somebody go independent, and you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I’m not looking for that.
This straightforward declaration shattered what China views as the most dangerous illusion harboured by pro-independence forces and, more importantly, established a pivotal point of convergence between China and the United States: a shared commitment to opposing separatism and preserving peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
答：中国政府在台湾问题上的坚定立场，清楚表明了中方维护国家主权和领土完整的坚定决心。事实上，台湾问题是特朗普总统访华议程中影响最为深远的议题之一。
中国在这一问题上的立场始终明确一致：台湾问题是中美关系中最重要、最核心的问题，是不可逾越的红线，也是整个双边关系的政治基础。更直接地说，台湾问题是决定中美关系能否实现前文所说“建设性战略稳定”的关键变量。如果双方以审慎和善意处理台湾问题，整体双边关系便能建立在稳定、可预期的基础上；如果处理不当，两国可能滑向任何一方都无法承受的对抗。
特朗普总统在返程途中接受福克斯新闻采访时明确表示，他不希望看到台湾走向“独立”。他说：
“我想说的是，我不希望有人走向独立。要知道，我们难道要跨越9500英里去打一场战争吗？我不希望这样。”
在中方看来，这一直接表态打破了“台独”势力抱有的最危险幻想。更重要的是，它确立了中美之间的一个重要共识点，即双方共同反对分裂，维护台湾海峡和平稳定。
Q: Some analysts have described Taiwan as a potential geopolitical fault line of the 21st century. How do you respond to that argument?
问：一些分析人士将台湾称为21世纪潜在的地缘政治断层线。您如何看待这一观点？
A: Taiwan has been an inalienable part of China’s territory since time immemorial. From the standpoint of geopolitical reality, the Taiwan question is an issue entirely internal to China and categorically lacks the necessary preconditions to qualify as a so-called “international geopolitical fault line.” The Chinese government firmly upholds the One-China Principle and remains steadfastly committed to advancing the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and achieving the complete reunification of the motherland.
At the present juncture, peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait unambiguously serve the fundamental interests of all parties concerned. It follows, therefore, that Taiwan not only has no grounds to evolve into the defining geopolitical fault line of the twenty-first century — it has no realistic possibility of doing so whatsoever.
Any assertion to the contrary reflects either a fundamental misreading or a deliberate mischaracterisation of what is, at its core, a matter of China’s sovereign internal affairs.
答：台湾自古以来就是中国领土不可分割的一部分。从地缘政治现实来看，台湾问题纯属中国内政，完全不具备成为所谓“国际地缘政治断层线”的必要条件。中国政府坚定奉行一个中国原则，始终致力于推动两岸关系和平发展，实现祖国完全统一。
现阶段，台湾海峡和平稳定明确符合所有有关方面的根本利益。因此，台湾既缺乏成为21世纪主要地缘政治断层线的依据，也不存在这种现实可能性。
任何相反论断，都源于对这一中国主权和内政问题的根本误读或蓄意曲解。
Q: Returning to the question of China’s expanding international role, is Beijing aiming to create a bipolar world divided between East and West, similar to the model once pursued by the Soviet Union, or is China attempting to build a different type of global order?
问：回到中国国际作用不断扩大的问题，中国是希望建立类似苏联曾经追求的、由东西方分割的两极世界，还是试图构建另一种全球秩序？
A: In 2021, I published an article in Foreign Affairs entitled “The Case for a New Engagement Consensus: A Chinese Vision of Global Order,” in which I introduced the concept of “G2RS” — a new engagement consensus premised upon a vision of the United States and China as a “G-2” of responsible stakeholders. In a “G2RS” world, China and the United States would continue to hedge against one another, yet manage their differences and compete in a calibrated, constructive and mutually accountable manner.
I have since refined this framework further, now characterising it as “a G2 nestled within a multipolarising world.” China is not seeking to construct a purely bipolar international order; rather, it is actively engaged in building a more diversified, inclusive and cooperative multilateral architecture.
In my assessment, the concept of a “Community with a Shared Future for Mankind” — championed by President Xi Jinping — most comprehensively and authentically articulates China’s vision of global order. This vision rests on three foundational pillars.
First, while fully acknowledging that nations differ in their political systems, development trajectories and cultural traditions, China advocates unconditional respect for the sovereignty of all countries and their inherent right to choose their own development path. This vision calls for an international order genuinely grounded in the principles of sovereign equality and mutual respect.
Second, the concept of a “Community with a Shared Future for Mankind” embodies the inseparable integration of responsibility and commitment. It holds that major powers bear a particular obligation to play a constructive and stabilising role in upholding the international order and addressing transnational challenges. Critically, China’s emphasis on its own responsibilities as a major power does not come at the expense of recognising the equal standing of all nations, large and small alike.
Third, the concept places enduring emphasis on long-term stability and sustainable development, advancing the principles of ecological civilisation and green development as indispensable components of a viable and just global future.
答：2021年，我在《外交事务》发表题为《新接触共识：全球秩序的中国愿景》的文章，提出“G2RS”概念。这一新接触共识以中美作为负责任利益攸关方组成的“G2”为愿景。在“G2RS”世界中，中美仍会相互对冲，同时管控分歧，以审慎、建设性并相互负责的方式开展竞争。
此后，我进一步完善了这一框架，将其概括为“嵌入多极化世界的G2”。中国并不寻求构建纯粹的两极国际秩序，而是积极推动建设更加多元、包容、合作的多边架构。
在我看来，习近平主席倡导的“人类命运共同体”理念，最为全面、真实地阐明了中国的全球秩序愿景。这一愿景建立在三个基本支柱之上。
第一，中国充分承认各国在政治制度、发展道路和文化传统方面存在差异，主张无条件尊重所有国家的主权及其自主选择发展道路的固有权利。这一愿景要求建立真正以主权平等和相互尊重为基础的国际秩序。
第二，“人类命运共同体”理念体现了责任与担当的统一。该理念认为，大国负有特殊责任，应当在维护国际秩序和应对跨国挑战方面发挥建设性、稳定性作用。中国强调自身的大国责任，同时也承认所有国家无论大小均享有平等地位。
第三，这一理念始终重视长期稳定和可持续发展，将生态文明与绿色发展作为构建可行、公正的全球未来不可或缺的组成部分。
Q: Piraeus is China’s gateway to Europe. Today, with European scepticism on the rise, do you believe that the European component of the “Belt and Road Initiative” is losing momentum?
问：比雷埃夫斯港是中国通往欧洲的门户。当前，欧洲的怀疑态度日益上升。您认为，共建“一带一路”在欧洲的发展是否正在失去动力？
A: As a microcosm of China–Europe cooperation, the current development of the Port of Piraeus serves as a window onto the evolving trajectory of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) across Europe. Overall, while shifting European political tides have cooled enthusiasm for the BRI to some extent, developments at the Port of Piraeus demonstrate that, far from losing momentum, the project has emerged as a benchmark for the resilience of China–Europe cooperation, advancing along more pragmatic and localised lines.
Data shows that since COSCO Shipping took over operations in 2016, the Port of Piraeus’s annual container throughput has soared from 680,000 TEU to over 5.6 million TEU. Its global ranking has risen from 93rd to 25th, and it has become the fourth-largest container port in Europe.
The success of the Port of Piraeus stems from its operational efficiency and commercial viability. It demonstrates that the success of Chinese enterprises in Europe is a result of market forces rather than government subsidies. The case of the Port of Piraeus also helps address the EU’s criticism of “market distortion.”
Having taken root, become deeply integrated into the local economy, and developed solid market competitiveness, the Piraeus project has retained its growth momentum. Through steady evolution, it has grown into a “structural pillar” underpinning stable China–Europe relations amid volatile circumstances. This demonstrates that cooperation grounded in market principles and the core interests of all parties possesses strong inherent resilience.
答：比雷埃夫斯港是中欧合作的缩影，其当前发展状况为观察共建“一带一路”在欧洲的演进轨迹提供了窗口。总体来看，欧洲政治环境的变化在一定程度上削弱了当地对共建“一带一路”的热情，但比雷埃夫斯港的发展表明，这一项目并未失去动力，而是沿着更加务实、本地化的方向推进，并已成为体现中欧合作韧性的标杆。
数据显示，自2016年中远海运接手运营以来，比雷埃夫斯港的年度集装箱吞吐量已从68万标准箱增至560多万标准箱，全球排名从第93位升至第25位，成为欧洲第四大集装箱港口。
比雷埃夫斯港的成功源于其运营效率和商业可行性。这表明，中国企业在欧洲取得成功是市场力量作用的结果，并非依赖政府补贴。比雷埃夫斯港案例也有助于回应欧盟关于“市场扭曲”的批评。
比雷埃夫斯港项目已经扎根当地、深度融入本地经济，并形成扎实的市场竞争力，因此得以保持增长势头。经过稳步发展，该项目已成为在形势变化中支撑中欧关系稳定的“结构性支柱”。这一案例表明，以市场原则和各方核心利益为基础的合作具有较强的内在韧性。
Q: Another major issue is “digital globalization”. In areas such as artificial intelligence, data governance, and semiconductors, how can the U.S. and China move beyond pure competition and establish a framework for coexistence?
问：另一个重要议题是“数字全球化”。在人工智能、数据治理和半导体等领域，中美如何才能超越单纯竞争，建立共存框架？
A: In the era of “re-globalization,” cross-border flows of intangible data factors have intensified, and “digitalization” has emerged as another defining feature of this “re-globalization” drive. Digital globalization is a complex issue that encompasses multiple dimensions, including technology, data, the economy, and governance. Artificial intelligence, data governance, and semiconductors are the core pillars of digital globalization.
China has built significant strengths in artificial intelligence, underpinned by advanced computing capabilities and a well-structured technology talent pool. The open-source strategies pursued by leading Chinese technology companies have served as a meaningful catalyst for the inclusive advancement of global AI technology — cultivating an open, collaborative, and self-reinforcing AI industry ecosystem whose influence has reverberated across the international landscape.
Looking ahead, China and the United States would be well served by establishing structured, high-level dialogue mechanisms dedicated to exchanging views on their respective AI policies, technical standards, and strategic development priorities. Such institutionalised communication would substantially enhance mutual understanding while reducing the risk of miscalculation and strategic misreading.
In parallel, deepening academic and industrial cooperation — through sustained collaboration and exchange between universities, research institutions, and industry actors in both countries — focused on non-sensitive AI applications and governance is not merely desirable but essential amid intensified technological competition and regulatory constraints.
Furthermore, in addressing shared global challenges such as climate change and public health, leveraging artificial intelligence and big data technologies as platforms for bilateral cooperation would powerfully demonstrate the untapped potential and enduring value of major-power collaboration within the context of digital globalization.
答：在“再全球化”时代，无形数据要素的跨境流动日益活跃，“数字化”也成为这一进程的又一显著特征。数字全球化是一个复杂议题，涉及技术、数据、经济和治理等多个维度。人工智能、数据治理和半导体是数字全球化的核心支柱。
中国在人工智能领域已经形成显著优势，其基础包括先进的计算能力和结构合理的科技人才队伍。中国领先科技企业采取的开源战略，有力推动了全球人工智能技术的包容性发展，并培育出开放、协作、能够自我强化的人工智能产业生态。这一生态的影响力已经扩展至全球。
展望未来，中美应建立结构化、高层级的对话机制，就各自的人工智能政策、技术标准和战略发展重点交换意见。此类制度化沟通将有助于加深相互理解，降低误判和战略误读风险。
与此同时，两国应深化学术界和产业界合作。双方高校、研究机构和产业主体可通过持续协作与交流，围绕非敏感人工智能应用和治理开展合作。在技术竞争加剧、监管限制增多的背景下，这类合作尤为重要。
此外，在应对气候变化和公共卫生等共同全球性挑战时，将人工智能和大数据技术作为双边合作平台，能够有力展现数字全球化背景下大国合作尚待释放的潜力和持久价值。
Q: Concluding, what will ultimately determine whether the relationship stabilises or deteriorates further?
问：最后，哪些因素将最终决定中美关系趋于稳定还是继续恶化？
A: The year 2026 marks a pivotal inflection point in the historical trajectories of both China and the United States. At this critical juncture, the two countries’ establishment of “constructive strategic stability” carries far-reaching contemporary implications. It indicates that the dominant paradigm of “strategic competition” — which defined China–U.S. relations across the “Trump 1.0” era and the Biden presidency — has been substantively superseded, reflecting a recalibration of bilateral ties towards a new development path and ushering in a historically consequential new chapter.
It follows, therefore, that the central question upon which the future trajectory of China–U.S. relations ultimately hinges — whether the relationship stabilises and matures, or deteriorates further — can be distilled into a single core framework: whether the two sides can successfully translate this emergent paradigm of “constructive strategic stability” from aspiration into durable practice. The realisation of this outcome, in turn, depends on several critical factors.
First, whether the two sides can consolidate economic and trade ties as the core stabilising pillars of bilateral relations. The agreement between the two sides to establish new mechanisms, such as a Trade Committee and an Investment Committee, is precisely aimed at creating regularised channels for managing disputes and identifying common interests.
Second, whether they can effectively manage competition in areas such as ideology, technology, and geopolitics.
Third, whether they can carry out pragmatic cooperation in areas of shared interest.
Fourth, whether they can “build bridges” to reshape people-to-people trust. People-to-people connectivity and non-governmental friendship are the fundamental factors that determine whether bilateral relations can achieve long-term and stable development. No matter how intense economic competition may be, or how complex political differences become, people-to-people exchanges and grassroots friendship can provide the strongest foundation for the relationship.
This is precisely the profound meaning of President Xi’s “four pillars” for U.S.–China relations: hope is in the people, the foundation lies in non-governmental exchanges, the future depends on the youth, and vitality thrives at the subnational level. As long as people remain closely connected and non-governmental friendship endures across generations, China–U.S. relations will be able to overcome temporary difficulties and achieve long-term, stable development.
答：2026年是中美两国历史发展进程中的关键转折点。在这一重要时刻，两国建立“建设性战略稳定”具有深远的时代意义。这表明，曾主导“特朗普1.0”时期和拜登执政时期中美关系的“战略竞争”范式已经发生实质性转变。双边关系正朝新的发展路径重新调整，并由此开启具有重要历史影响的新篇章。
因此，决定中美关系未来走向的核心问题，可以归结为双方能否将新出现的“建设性战略稳定”范式从愿景转化为持久实践。中美关系是趋于稳定成熟，还是继续恶化，最终都取决于这一点。实现这一目标还需要满足几个关键条件。
第一，双方能否巩固经贸关系，使其成为稳定双边关系的核心支柱。双方同意设立贸易理事会、投资理事会等新机制，正是为了建立常态化渠道，以管控争端并寻找共同利益。
第二，双方能否有效管控意识形态、科技和地缘政治等领域的竞争。
第三，双方能否在共同关心的领域开展务实合作。
第四，双方能否通过“搭建桥梁”重塑民间互信。民心相通和民间友好是决定双边关系能否实现长期稳定发展的根本因素。无论经济竞争多么激烈，政治分歧多么复杂，人文交流与基层友好都能为两国关系提供最坚实的基础。
这正是习近平主席关于中美关系“四个在”的深刻含义：中美关系希望在人民，基础在民间，未来在青年，活力在地方。只要两国人民保持紧密联系，民间友好能够代代传承，中美关系就能克服一时的困难，实现长期稳定发展。
【关于GeoTrends】
GeoTrends 是专注地缘政治与全球国际事务的权威专业分析平台，深耕全球地缘格局演变、大国战略博弈、国际秩序重构及地缘经济发展等核心议题。平台核心特色为深度专访，长期对话全球各国前政要、顶尖国际关系学者、权威智库专家与政策制定从业者。
受访重磅政界嘉宾涵盖多国前国家元首、政府首脑及防务内阁高官：土耳其前总统阿卜杜拉・居尔、拉脱维亚前总统瓦伊拉・维凯 - 弗赖贝加、亚美尼亚总理尼科尔・帕希尼扬、以色列前总理埃胡德・奥尔默特与亚伊尔・拉皮德、美国前国防部长莱昂・帕内塔、美国前内政部长萨莉・朱厄尔、北约驻阿富汗国际安全援助部队前总司令戴维・彼得雷乌斯将军等。
同时，平台持续对话全球顶尖学术领军人物，囊括多位诺贝尔经济学奖得主与各领域泰斗：2002 年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、普林斯顿大学教授丹尼尔・卡尼曼，2008 年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、普林斯顿大学教授保罗・克鲁格曼，2017 年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、芝加哥大学教授理查德・塞勒；深度学习三巨头之一、蒙特利尔大学人工智能领域权威学者约书亚・本吉奥；哈佛大学肯尼迪学院前院长、国际关系理论泰斗约瑟夫・奈，斯坦福大学知名政治思想家弗朗西斯・福山，多元智能理论创始人、哈佛大学教育学院教授霍华德・加德纳等各学科顶尖专家。
原文：GeoTrends
订阅